Dear Eric – Open Letter : Wirral Housing Needs to 2033

Eric Gut

Mr. Eric Robinson, CE
Wirral Council, PO BOX 290
Brighton St., Wallasey CH27 9FQ 23.09.18

Dear Mr. Robinson

OPEN LETTER: WIRRAL HOUSING NEEDS TO 2033

As you have no doubt heard the government has updated the national and local population and household projections for the next 25 years (ONS website September 21st 2018). In the case of Wirral both the population growth and the household numbers growth have halved based on 2016 data. However you apply the numbers (for example by referencing back to your Litchfield Consultants report of 2016) the result is effectively the same. Instead of 12,000 houses over the fifteen year plan only ~5,900 are needed. Any attempts to ‘uplift’ this number based on now mythical economic growth scenarios, or affordability factors, or the later release of ‘pent up’ demand in certain age groups, will not be credible in the light of recent government economic forecasts. Indeed the credibility of the government housing needs methodology will now come under close scrutiny. I should also tell you that the latest population forecast growth to 2033 relies entirely on a large net migration into Wirral which your own consultants questioned in 2016. I expect the newly released numbers to be further challenged and actual Wirral future housing needs forecasts will be lower still (~4,400 based on current trends).
The housing implications are obvious. Some weeks ago I submitted an analysis to the public consultation which was also widely published. I enclose a copy. It works through several housing scenarios using brown field, Peel offers and empty house recovery assumptions for the 12,000 houses target and for that target simply scaled down by the changed population forecast (i.e. 7,100 houses). You can see that very little of your 4,900 acres proposed GB parcel release plan would be required. This land could support 71,000 houses. With the new government household growth forecasts the 15 year plan period housing needs drop to ~5,900. The effects of this are shown in the second document enclosed. Under most scenarios NO green belt land needs be used at all to meet housing needs. At most it would be a few percent of your 4,900 acre GB parcel release plan. The ‘plan’ is totally spurious and unjustified by the ‘official’ data.
In these circumstances I suggest the public consultation should be halted until the council makes the new housing need numbers clear to all Wirral residents and compares them honestly with your GB release plan proposals which in principle could accommodate 71,000 houses. It is not good enough for David Ball to tell public consultation meetings that the numbers will be looked at in camera, by a council appointed ‘expert’, ‘some time’ in the future. Alternatively the GB release plan could be withdrawn now before formal challenges to it emerge.

Professor D P Gregg (retired)

(Claremont Defenders Group)

 

8 thoughts on “Dear Eric – Open Letter : Wirral Housing Needs to 2033

  1. Superb, Prof. Simply… superb.

    They cannot argue with the cold, hard facts. Perhaps Eric will seek to try and counter this anyway, because he’s been spearheading a cunning plan, one which is well-developed, one which they’ve invested our money and all their negative, deceitful energies into, and one which involves assisting the passage of fraud.

    We shall see.

  2. The Council want to look at the numbers ‘in camera’. What the fuck!!!

    The whole thing is turning into some kind of existential nightmare.

    This is one the strangest sausage rolls that I have ever had.

    • Stop eating at Poundland bakers and get an M&S one – oh you cannot because they have buggered off from the sinking ship if Birkenhead

  3. Is this Eric chap one of those nice ‘best people’ employed to deliver the highest quality of work on behalf of us ungrateful Plebs perchance? Not that I’m doubting his portfolio of achievements, but I would have thought the ‘best people’ would have known a thing or two about data analysis, considering what they are being rewarded for being ‘the best’.

    I do hope The Prof doesn’t feel too dwarfed by the expertise of nice Mr Eric.

    • G’day Rummy

      Have you seen the state of “Spotty Dog” the “Blinking CEO”?

      He who drinks by himself in Liverpool.

      Ooroo

      James

      Just another yes man that couldn’t do the right thing if was wrong.

      Keep at em mate.

      I am certain he wouldn’t have any say in any decisions or he would have got shot of Davies Jones Foulkes Davies Armstrong and the rest of the crud and dross.

      Only the decent untainted like Clowncillor Emergency Ward 10 Year Old and Clowncillor Little Matty Patty are offended by the stench and disease ridden wallasey clown hall. XXX

  4. Yet another superb document by Professor Greg.
    I presume that the council appointed “expert” will be yet another failed local government official who will be paid an obscene salary for a report supporting the views of Wallasey Town Hall.
    Perhaps another import from York City Council on £188,000 a year. is waiting in the wings for the clarion call.?

  5. David ball just one more ineffectual useless overpaid goon .. strategic plan was your job as head of everything .. 14 years to get round to it so what have you been doing.. apart from nod and collecting 👊

    Excellent prof thank you so much ..whatever wmbc pay external consultants you deserve every penny .. wmbc don’t need contracting procedures usually.. just write the cheque mute Eric

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